The method
How the number
is priced
Every posted price contains the book's margin. Removing it takes both sides and one division — no model, no forecast, nothing to take on trust. Here it is on a prop posted right now.
NFL · live board
Trevor Lawrence · Passing yards 225.5
Two probabilities that sum to more than 100% is the margin, stated plainly. Dividing each side by that sum spreads it back out — p = q / (q + q_opposite) — and what comes out is what the posted prices say about the two outcomes, once the book's cut is taken back off.
That is the whole trick, and it is why we can show a fair number without claiming to predict anything. It is arithmetic on numbers somebody else published. A different book posting a better price on one side is the only edge available here, and it is the one thing a credential puts in front of you.
Nothing on this page is a prediction, a recommendation, or a claim about any outcome. Prices move; the arithmetic does not.